Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin could revisit $58K
Bitcoin hovered near $65,000 on Aug. 10 as veteran trader Peter Brandt leaned toward another decline, pointing to a large head and shoulders structure that broke down earlier this summer.
Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $65,000 while Peter Brandt says he would currently bet on another decline.
- Brandt’s head and shoulders chart points toward $58,000 if Bitcoin fails to reclaim resistance soon.
- Bitcoin’s daily chart shows ADX near 11.16, signaling weak trend strength during current consolidation conditions.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $850 million in net inflows across five sessions.
- Lookonchain tracked one whale selling 7,513 BTC worth roughly $486.9 million during three recent weeks.
Brandt said he had not entered a trade, but wrote that “if I were to bet it would be for a decline.”
The cautious view comes as the crypto tries to stabilize above its 54 day moving average while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attract more than $850 million in weekly inflows. That leaves the market caught between improving institutional demand and a technical structure that has not yet cleared resistance around $67,260.
Bitcoin indicators show a weak trend below $67,260
On the supplied BTC/USD daily chart, BTC was trading near $65,021 and remained slightly above its 54 day simple moving average near $64,352. Holding above that average points to stabilization following the June selloff, but price is still below the marked $67,260 resistance area.
The lower indicators reinforce the lack of a strong directional move. Average True Range stood near 1,672, showing that daily price ranges remain relatively wide, while the Average Directional Index was only about 11.16. An ADX reading this low indicates weak trend strength, which fits Bitcoin’s sideways movement after its drop toward the $58,000 to $60,000 area.
Brandt’s chart shows a head and shoulders structure built between April and June. The neckline around $75,000 has already broken, and his drawn path points toward roughly $58,000. That is a technical scenario rather than a confirmed destination. A sustained move above $67,260 would weaken the immediate bearish setup shown on his chart.
Brandt leans bearish as one large whale keeps selling
Brandt made the uncertainty clear in his Aug. 10 post. “I am not in the bet yet, but if I were to bet it would be for a decline,” he wrote. His wording matters because he is expressing a directional preference rather than announcing an active short position or guaranteeing another selloff.
Selling by at least one large holder adds another source of supply. Lookonchain reported that a whale sold another 1,019 BTC, worth about $66.4 million, and had disposed of 7,513 BTC worth roughly $486.9 million over three weeks. The activity is notable, but one tracked whale should not be treated as proof that Bitcoin whales as a group are selling.
That pressure also lines up with recent onchain analysis showing Bitcoin below the short term holder realized price. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. placed that cost basis at $67,523 on Aug. 8, close to Brandt’s resistance area. As crypto.news reported in recent holder selling analysis, a move toward that level could bring some underwater holders closer to breakeven.
U.S. Bitcoin ETF demand offers a bullish counterweight
ETF demand has moved in the opposite direction. Farside Investors recorded daily net inflows of $170.1 million, $211.5 million, $244.4 million, $137.6 million and $101.7 million from Aug. 3 through Aug. 7. Those figures total about $865.3 million across five sessions.
As crypto.news reported in today’s U.S. CPI preview, Bitcoin nevertheless remained around $65,000 despite the stronger fund demand.
A separate claim circulating Monday connected the stronger ETF flows with the Coldcard wallet breach. Coinkite has confirmed a seed generation weakness affecting several Coldcard firmware versions and warned affected customers to create new seeds and move their BTC.
However, there is currently no verified evidence that the Coldcard incident caused investors to shift directly into Bitcoin ETFs. The timing alone does not establish that relationship. Inrelated Coldcard security coverage, Galaxy Research had confirmed 1,596 BTC stolen across three attack waves, while a suspected fourth wave could bring losses to roughly 2,055 BTC. The higher figure remains unconfirmed.
Bitcoin now faces U.S. CPI and the $67K barrier
The next scheduled macro test arrives Wednesday, Aug. 12. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July U.S. consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Friday’s employment release showed nonfarm payrolls falling by 23,000 in July, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.
Bitcoin’s short term map is therefore relatively clear. A sustained break above $67,260, followed by the short term holder cost basis around $67,523, would challenge the bearish setup and improve the recovery structure. Failure around that zone would keep the recent consolidation intact and leave the $60,000 region exposed to another test.
Brandt’s roughly $58,000 path should remain attributed as his technical scenario, not a market forecast. For now, ADX near 11 shows little trend strength, ETF inflows remain supportive, and tracked large holder selling is still present. Wednesday’s inflation report could provide the next catalyst for a break from BTC’s current range.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
