Why Bitcoin’s Previous Lows Won’t Repeat, According To Respected Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC), the reigning king of cryptocurrencies, is on the cusp of an exciting phase, according to prominent crypto trader Jason Pizzino.

In his latest YouTube video, Pizzino delves into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and shares his belief that the digital currency is unlikely to revisit its previous cycle lows. This analysis is based on historical data that reveals a compelling pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements.

One of the key factors driving Pizzino’s outlook is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, a well-documented phenomenon in the world of cryptocurrency. This cycle refers to the period between each Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. 

During a halving event, the reward for mining new Bitcoins is reduced by half. These events, in turn, have a profound impact on Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and often trigger significant price fluctuations.

“The main thing is it is almost guaranteed that $15,500 is not going to break,” Pizzino explains. “And potentially we won’t see closes under the March low either, which is at $19,500, something that I’ve talked about for a long time on the channel now.”

This suggests that Bitcoin is poised to maintain its key support levels, marking the end of a bearish phase and the start of a new bull market.

Comparing Bitcoin To Traditional Markets

To gain a more comprehensive perspective on Bitcoin’s performance, Pizzino also compares its movements to those of traditional markets, particularly the S&P 500. He highlights that within the four-year cycle, the S&P 500 typically reaches a new all-time high before Bitcoin manages to do the same.

Total crypto market cap currently at $1.06 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

This pattern, observed during previous accumulation years, demonstrates Bitcoin’s resilience and potential for long-term growth.

In another notable development, the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio has undergone a substantial transformation over the past two years. In 2021, Bitcoin was valued at 35 times the price of gold, while in 2023, this ratio has halved to 15. This shift in the ratio is a critical indicator of Bitcoin’s performance relative to a traditional store of value like gold.

Source: LongTermTrends

Bitcoin’s Current Status

This shift is significant because it reflects the changing dynamics of the financial landscape. Bitcoin’s decreasing ratio to gold could indicate that investors are becoming more cautious about the cryptocurrency, possibly as a response to regulatory concerns or increased market maturity.

As of the latest available data, Bitcoin’s price, according to CoinGecko, stands at $28,314.26. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin experienced a minor dip of 1.4%, but it has exhibited a gain of 5.4% in the seven-day period. These fluctuations are typical in the world of cryptocurrencies and highlight the asset’s inherent volatility.

Featured image from Forbes