SUI Price Drops 10% as $128M Token Unlock Sparks Selling Pressure
Rongchai Wang
Aug 01, 2025 12:27
SUI trades at $3.48 (-10.18%) following yesterday’s 44 million token unlock worth $128M, while technical indicators show mixed signals near key support levels.
Quick Take
• SUI currently trading at $3.48 (-10.18% in 24h)
• SUI RSI at 45.32 suggests neutral momentum despite recent decline
• Token unlock of 44 million SUI tokens yesterday created immediate selling pressure
What’s Driving Sui Price Today?
The primary catalyst behind today’s SUI price decline is yesterday’s significant token unlock event. On August 1, 2025, Sui released 44 million SUI tokens into circulation worth approximately $128 million, representing a 1.27% increase in total supply. This scheduled unlock created immediate downward pressure as markets anticipated potential selling from recipients.
The timing proved particularly challenging as SUI price had already been declining for three consecutive days leading up to the unlock. Market data shows open interest dropped from $2.41 billion to $2.30 billion, indicating weakening confidence among derivatives traders ahead of the event.
Despite recent positive developments including Mill City Ventures’ massive $450 million investment commitment on July 29 and Sui’s Total Value Locked reaching an all-time high of $2.2 billion, the immediate market focus remains on the supply-side pressure from the token unlock. The launch of Ika Mainnet, which enables native cross-chain asset control on Sui, provided technical innovation but hasn’t offset the near-term selling pressure.
SUI Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals at Critical Support
Sui technical analysis reveals a complex picture as the token tests key support levels. SUI’s RSI currently sits at 45.32, placing it in neutral territory rather than oversold conditions, suggesting the decline may have further room to run before reaching technically attractive levels.
The SUI/USDT pair is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $3.46, with the current price of $3.48 showing SUI has found temporary support at this technical level. Sui’s position at 0.0298 on the %B indicator confirms the token is trading very close to the lower band, often a signal for potential bounce or further breakdown.
SUI’s MACD tells a concerning story with the histogram at -0.0762, indicating bearish momentum continues to build. The Stochastic oscillator shows extreme oversold conditions with %K at 4.81, which could signal a near-term bounce if buying interest emerges.
Moving averages present a mixed picture for Sui support levels. While SUI price remains above the 50-day SMA at $3.28 and 200-day SMA at $3.19, it has broken below shorter-term moving averages including the 7-day and 20-day SMAs, both at $3.87.
Sui Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Based on Binance spot market data, critical Sui support levels are now in focus. The immediate SUI support sits at $3.38, representing a crucial level that must hold to prevent deeper declines. Should this level fail, SUI resistance that previously acted as support could see the token test the strong support zone at $2.29.
On the upside, SUI faces immediate resistance at $4.44, which coincides with the strong resistance level. Any recovery attempt must first reclaim the pivot point at $3.60, followed by the key moving average cluster around $3.87.
The 24-hour trading range of $3.44-$3.89 shows SUI price is currently testing the lower boundary, making the next few sessions critical for determining short-term direction. With daily ATR at $0.30, traders should expect continued volatility as the market digests the token unlock impact.
Should You Buy SUI Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
The current SUI price action presents different opportunities depending on trading approach and risk tolerance. For aggressive traders, the extreme Stochastic readings and proximity to Bollinger Band support could offer a tactical bounce play, but strict stop-losses below $3.38 are essential.
Conservative investors might wait for clearer signs of stabilization above the $3.60 pivot point and preferably above the $3.87 moving average cluster. The token unlock overhang may continue weighing on sentiment for several days as the market absorbs the additional supply.
Swing traders should monitor SUI’s RSI for potential divergences and watch for any move back above the 50 level, which would suggest renewed bullish momentum. The risk-reward improves significantly if SUI can hold current support levels, offering potential upside back toward $4.44 resistance.
Long-term holders should consider that despite the immediate pressure, the fundamental developments including the $450 million institutional investment and record TVL suggest underlying strength in the Sui ecosystem.
Conclusion
SUI price faces a critical juncture as yesterday’s $128 million token unlock creates immediate headwinds despite strong fundamental developments. With SUI trading at key technical support near $3.48 and mixed signals from indicators, the next 24-48 hours will likely determine whether this represents a buying opportunity or the start of deeper correction toward the $2.29 support zone. Traders should watch closely for how SUI price reacts at current support levels while monitoring any changes in derivatives market sentiment.
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