Is The Worst Over? Experts Weigh In
Bitcoin has experienced a sharp decline from its March 14 high of over $73,600 to today’s low of under $60,800, translating to a -17% loss in value. This significant drop has prompted a flurry of activity on social media platforms, particularly X (formerly Twitter), where crypto experts have been fervently discussing the potential reasons behind this downturn and speculating on what the future holds for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
Unpacking The Bitcoin Crash: Expert Opinions
Alex Krüger, a respected figure in both macroeconomics and crypto, was quick to identify the primary factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price collapse. According to Krüger, the crash can be attributed to several key factors: excessive leverage in the market, Ethereum’s negative influence on overall market sentiment due to ETF speculations, a notable decrease in Bitcoin ETF inflows, and the irrational exuberance surrounding Solana memecoins, which he refers to disparagingly as “shitcoin mania.”
Reasons for the crash, in order of importance
(for those who need them)
#1 Too much leverage (funding matters)
#2 ETH driving market south (market decided ETF not passing)
#3 Negative BTC ETF inflows (careful, data is T+1)
#4 Solana shitcoin mania (it went too far)— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) March 20, 2024
WhalePanda, another influential voice within the crypto space, pointed out the alarming rate of ETF outflows, with a record $326 million leaving the market yesterday. This movement has been particularly detrimental to GBTC, which saw outflows of $443.5 million.
In contrast, Blackrock’s inflows stood at a mere $75.2 million, marking its second lowest to date. Also, Fidelity saw just $39.6 million in inflows. “Not much to say, this is bad for the price and we’ll probably see lower now because this news affects the sentiment as well. Let’s see what the flows are tomorrow. Positive thing is that we’re roughly 30 days from halving, and GBTC is getting rekt,” he remarked.
Yesterdays ETF flows by @FarsideUK.
We had $326 million in outflows. Biggest outflow to date.
Blackrock didn’t save us from $GBTC, which kind of was obvious with the price action.$GBTC had $443.5 million outflows, Blackrock had $75.2 million inflows, their 2nd lowest to… pic.twitter.com/hIingoYMly
— WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) March 20, 2024
Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, provided a historical perspective on Bitcoin’s recent price move, suggesting that a 20% to 30% pullback is within the norm for Bitcoin bull runs.
“A normal Bitcoin bullrun pullback is 30%. Back in December, we were already in the longest winning streak in Bitcoin’s history. A 20% pullback here takes us to $59K. A 30% pullback would be $51K. These are all levels we should be comfortable expecting as possibilities,” he stated.
Rekt Capital provided an analysis of Bitcoin’s price retracements since the 2022 bear market bottom, noting that the current pullback is only the fifth major retrace, with all previous ones exceeding a -20% depth and lasting from 14 to 63 days. In sum, there are two key takeaways about this current retracement
The closer Bitcoin gets to a -20% retrace, the better the opportunity becomes.
Retraces need time to fully mature (at least 2-3 weeks, at most 2-months).
Since the November 2022 Bear Market Bottom…
Bitcoin has experienced the following retraces:
• -23% (February 2023) lasting 21 days
• -21% (April/May 2023) lasting 63 days
• -22% (July/September 2023) lasting 63 days
• -21% (January 2023) lasting 14 days
This… pic.twitter.com/cQyQOLA5Zv
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 19, 2024
Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto giant Galaxy Digital had previously warned of the likelihood of significant corrections during bull markets, suggesting that the current retrace is relatively standard. “Two weeks ago i warned that big corrections aren’t just possible but *likely* in Bitcoin bull markets. At -15%, this is pretty standard historically. Bull markets climb a wall of worry.”
Macro analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) focused specifically on the implications of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. He highlighted the massive outflows from spot BTC ETFs, attributing them to traders’ cautious stance ahead of the FOMC decision and the potential impact of tax season in the US.
However, following the drop to $60,800, Ted suggested that the market might have fully priced in the worst-case scenario, hinting at a potential bullish reversal if the FOMC’s decisions align with market expectations for interest rate cuts by the end of the year. He stated:
Time to bid. FOMC hedging done, worst case priced. Only thing that happens from here is that those protective positions unwind into or on the event today. Bulls should step up here soon. […] The market has fully priced in another hold from the Fed at today’s meeting, and is pricing 3 rate cuts from them by the end of the year. Anything that strays away from this from today’s new economic projection / dot plot material will make the market move sharply.
At press time, BTC traded at $62,979.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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