How much can BTC surge post Bitcoin ETF approval?
As the crypto industry braces for the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the financial community is abuzz with predictions and analyses.
The impending decision by the SEC has ignited discussions, drawing a line between Bitcoin as a speculative investment and a legitimate payment method. The outcomes of this decision could be a defining moment for Bitcoin’s future.
A short stretch beyond $50k
Some analysts predict that Bitcoin’s bull run post-ETF approval will be significant, but it might not be as extravagant as new all-time highs, as predicted by others. Mister Crypto, a notable analyst on X, sees a 5% to 10% surge in Bitcoin’s value following the Spot Bitcoin ETF’s approval. This uptick could propel Bitcoin beyond the $48,000 threshold and slowly build up towards its previous all-time high. Yet, this short-term forecast is tethered to various contingencies, including the ETF’s implementation pace and the actual market demand for the ETF. Potential sell-offs in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could also significantly influence this rally.
In a recent interview with CNBC, Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier expressed a hopeful sentiment for 2024 and 2025, viewing them as the runway for a forthcoming bull run. This optimism is echoed by industry insiders and commentators, who predict a wide range of Bitcoin values for 2024, stretching from $60,000 to an ambitious $500,000. These forecasts are buoyed by two significant factors: the anticipated “halving” of Bitcoin and the potential ETF approval in the U.S.
A potential leap beyond the much anticipated $100k?
James Mullarney, a popular crypto analyst YouTuber with over 450K subscribers, provided a more mathematical prediction of Bitcoin. Mullarney combined the 13 different Bitcoin prediction models from industry experts and financial firms in his recent analysis. His analysis predicted that BTC could be $150,000 by the end of 2024.
Cumberland DRW, the crypto division of trading giant DRW, is already gearing up for Bitcoin ETFs. They are onboarding issuers and sourcing Bitcoin, ensuring readiness for the influx of orders. Rob Strebel, head of relationship management at Cumberland DRW, emphasizes the market’s efficiency in absorbing substantial trading volumes, reflecting confidence in the market’s liquidity. Although Strebel did not provide any specific prediction to CNBC, he emphasized that ETF approval would trigger a massive inflow of institutional funds in the leading crypto.
Differing outlooks on a Bitcoin rally
As we approach the SEC’s deadline for a verdict on Bitcoin ETFs, there’s palpable tension. The approval of these ETFs could fuel speculation, given the fresh avenues they open for investment. According to a report by Yahoo Finance, as many as 14 money managers are poised to launch their own spot Bitcoin ETFs. These developments could lead to Bitcoin’s assimilation into conventional investment portfolios like 401(k)s, IRAs, and pension plans, signaling a mainstream acceptance of the world’s preeminent cryptocurrency.
Despite such optimism, many are unconvinced that a BTC price rally is imminent after ETF approvals. Crypto financial services platform Matrixport, which previously provided extremely bullish predictions on Bitcoin, turned bearish earlier this week and reported speculations on the SEC rejecting all current applications. This triggered a major liquidation in the market, wiping off $540 million in four hours. However, Bitcoin and the overall crypto market recovered shortly after.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also offers a contrasting perspective. In his essay “Signposts,” Hayes anticipates a significant correction in Bitcoin’s price, projecting a drop between 20% and 40%, especially if U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs start trading. This prediction casts a shadow on the optimistic outlooks, suggesting volatility in Bitcoin’s path ahead.
Overall, the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs stands as a pivotal event, poised to reshape the landscape of cryptocurrency investment. While some analysts predict a substantial surge, others caution about possible corrections. As the industry awaits the SEC’s decision, it remains clear that ETF approval will impact Bitcoin’s adoption and price significantly in the long-term. But how far the price ticker will fall continues to be speculated.
