Cardano (ADA) Faces Mixed Signals as Chang Hard Fork Approaches – Technical Analysis
Rongchai Wang
Sep 03, 2025 10:05
ADA trades at $0.83 with neutral RSI at 48.96 as traders weigh upcoming Chang hard fork against bearish MACD signals and recent scaling milestone achievements.
Quick Take
• ADA currently trading at $0.83 (+1.47% in 24h)
• Cardano’s RSI sits in neutral territory at 48.96 with bearish MACD divergence
• Chang hard fork delayed to September 1 while Leios scaling milestone achieved
What’s Driving Cardano Price Today?
The ADA price has shown resilience over the past week despite mixed market signals. Most recently, Cardano’s Chang hard fork has been postponed to September 1, originally scheduled for late August. This delay, while neutral in impact, reflects the development team’s commitment to ensuring ecosystem readiness before implementing major upgrades.
Earlier this week, Cardano achieved a significant technical milestone with the public release of the Leios CIP (Cardano Improvement Proposal), aimed at enhancing network scalability. This development has provided underlying support for ADA price action, demonstrating continued progress in addressing blockchain scalability challenges.
The cryptocurrency also demonstrated strength when it rallied to $0.87 on August 27, effectively shrugging off negative sentiment from the SEC’s pause on Grayscale’s ETF application. This price movement on elevated volume suggests institutional interest remains intact despite regulatory uncertainties.
ADA Technical Analysis: Neutral Momentum with Bearish Undertones
Cardano technical analysis reveals a complex picture for traders. The ADA RSI currently sits at 48.96, placing it firmly in neutral territory and suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutral reading provides little directional bias for immediate price action.
However, momentum indicators paint a more concerning picture. Cardano’s MACD histogram shows a reading of -0.0105, indicating bearish momentum is building beneath the surface. The MACD line itself sits at -0.0003, below the signal line at 0.0102, confirming the bearish momentum signal.
Stochastic indicators add another layer of complexity, with Cardano’s %K at 28.33 and %D at 22.72, both residing in oversold territory. This oversold condition could potentially signal a bounce opportunity for contrarian traders.
The Bollinger Bands analysis shows ADA trading within a relatively wide range, with the current price positioned at 29.86% of the band width. This positioning suggests room for movement in either direction without triggering extreme readings.
Cardano Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Based on Binance spot market data, Cardano support levels are clearly defined. The immediate ADA support sits at $0.78, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band. This level has proven significant in recent trading sessions and represents the first line of defense for bulls.
Should the $0.78 level fail, Cardano strong support awaits at $0.68, representing a more substantial safety net approximately 18% below current levels. This deeper support level aligns with longer-term technical structures.
On the upside, ADA resistance appears at $0.99 as the immediate hurdle. This level represents a key psychological barrier and technical ceiling that has capped recent rallies. Breaking above this resistance could open the path toward Cardano strong resistance at $1.02, which sits near the 52-week high of $1.14.
The ADA/USDT trading pair shows the pivot point at $0.82, essentially at current price levels, suggesting the market is at a critical decision point.
Should You Buy ADA Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
For aggressive traders, the current setup presents a mixed bag. The oversold stochastic readings suggest potential for a short-term bounce, particularly if ADA price can hold above the $0.78 immediate support level. However, the bearish MACD momentum argues for caution on any long positions.
Conservative investors might consider waiting for clearer signals. A break above $0.87 (the 20-day SMA) would improve the technical picture and potentially invalidate the current bearish momentum. Conversely, a decisive break below $0.78 could trigger further selling toward the $0.68 strong support level.
Risk management becomes crucial at current levels. Traders should consider the daily ATR of $0.06, which provides a measure of expected volatility for position sizing. Stop losses below $0.78 for long positions and above $0.87 for short positions would align with key technical levels.
The upcoming Chang hard fork on September 1 adds an event-driven catalyst that could override technical signals, making position sizing conservative until after the implementation.
Conclusion
Cardano finds itself at a technical crossroads with the ADA price hovering near critical support and resistance levels. While recent scaling achievements and institutional interest provide fundamental support, bearish momentum indicators suggest caution in the near term. Traders should watch the $0.78 support level closely over the next 24-48 hours, as a break could signal further downside toward $0.68. The September 1 Chang hard fork remains a wild card that could significantly impact price action regardless of current technical signals.
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