Bitcoin Daily Chart Compression Mirrors 2018 Setup – On The Edge Of A Breakout?
Bitcoin reached the $108,000 level just a few hours ago, coming within striking distance of its all-time high at $109,000. While bulls continue to show strength and maintain momentum, the market has yet to deliver a clear breakout into price discovery. The resistance at the ATH remains a critical barrier that must be breached for BTC to confirm a new rally phase and launch into a sustained impulsive move.
Investor sentiment is mixed as volatility narrows and price action tightens, suggesting a decisive move is nearing. According to new insights from CryptoQuant, compression is building up again on the daily timeframe, marking the third instance of such a setup in this current bull cycle. Historically, similar compressions have preceded major breakouts, signaling that the market may be preparing for another explosive leg higher.
However, without a confirmed breakout, caution remains. The consolidation around these levels could either lead to a surge above the ATH or another round of profit-taking and correction. All eyes are now on how BTC handles the $109K level, as the outcome will likely shape market direction heading into the final stretch of Q2.
Compression Builds As Bitcoin Struggles Near All-Time High
Bitcoin is currently facing a pivotal moment in its market structure as it tests resistance levels just below its all-time high. The price surged to $108,000 but continues to struggle against key supply zones that are capping bullish momentum. Despite the impressive rally since April, when BTC gained over 40% in value, many analysts are now calling for a retrace if bulls fail to deliver a convincing breakout. A critical support level at $100,000 is now the line in the sand. Losing it could trigger a deeper correction and shake short-term investor confidence.
While the technical setup points to potential upside, the market sentiment doesn’t yet reflect the typical euphoria seen near ATH levels. Instead, the tone remains cautious. Liquidity continues to build above the $108,000 mark, and a decisive push beyond that could finally initiate the next phase of price discovery.
Top analyst Axel Adler adds weight to the bullish case, noting that on the daily timeframe, compression is building up once again, marking the third such event in this bull cycle. Historically, a trio of compressions preceded the explosive 2018 rally. Adler suggests that the current price action resembles a tightly coiled spring, ready to release. Whether that energy resolves upward or downward remains to be seen, but the setup signals a large move is imminent.
In short, Bitcoin remains caught between growing bullish pressure and looming market hesitation. A clean break above $109,000 could confirm the start of an impulsive rally, but if sellers take control, a sharp retrace could follow. Either way, volatility is on the horizon.
Technical Details: BTC Flirts With ATH
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight consolidation range on the 4-hour chart, holding above the key $103,600 support level. After reaching a local high of around $108,000, BTC saw a sharp rejection that brought it back to $106,166 at the time of writing. This price action reflects rising indecision in the market as bulls defend higher lows but fail to push into new highs above the ATH.
The 200 EMA and 200 SMA are well below the current price at $98,119 and $97,254, respectively, reinforcing a bullish structure in the medium term. Volume remains relatively stable but has not shown the strength typically needed to break out of a consolidation pattern. This suggests that traders are still waiting for a clearer directional signal.
If BTC breaks above the $108K resistance, a retest of the $109K ATH becomes likely. However, failure to hold above $103,600 could trigger a deeper pullback, with the $100K level acting as a critical psychological and technical support zone.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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